Monday, October 26, 2026 · Evening brief
Big Bet: a trader collected $11.0M selling META $660 calls
SPY +0.72%, QQQ +1.11%, IWM +0.46%. Flow was 55% bullish against a typical 50%.
01The 60-second version
- SPY +0.72% and QQQ +1.11%, leaving SPY 2.1% under its 52-week high. Technology led the sectors; Communication services fell the most.
- EWZ dropped 19.8% to $34.15. Its biggest options trade: a trader bought $35 calls for $1.0M.
- 807 large trades; 55% of directional money was bullish, against a typical 50%.
- The Big Bet: a trader collected $11.0M selling META $660 calls; the seller starts losing at $680.62, 7.9% above the close.
- Tuesday: durable Goods at 8:30 a.m. ET; V and STX report after the close.
02The close
How the market closed
SPY gained 0.72% to $765.37; QQQ gained 1.11% to $712.20; IWM gained 0.46% to $276.99. SPY is up 0.72% on the week. It closed 2.1% under its 52-week high.
7 of 11 sectors rose. Technology led (+1.69%) and Communication services was weakest (−1.57%).
| Index | Close | Day | Week | Floor | Titan | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYS&P 500 ETF | 765.37 | +0.72% | +0.72% | — | — | — |
| QQQNasdaq-100 ETF | 712.20 | +1.11% | +1.11% | — | — | — |
| IWMRussell 2000 ETF | 276.99 | +0.46% | +0.46% | — | — | — |
| SPXS&P 500 index | 7,676.77 | +0.70% | +0.70% | — | — | — |
| Sector and volatility | Close | Day | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLKTop sector · Technology | 186.32 | +1.69% | +1.69% |
| XLCBottom sector · Communication services | 103.85 | −1.57% | −1.57% |
| VIXVolatility index | 18.39 | −5.45% | −5.45% |
Floor and Ceiling are the nearest calm levels below and above the close that are big enough to matter; a dash means none qualified. The Titan is the biggest level on the map and is tagged when it is jumpy. Jumpy levels tend to let price run through them. Week is the change since the last close of the prior week. Reference points, not forecasts.
03Options flow
Where the money went
The Flow page showed 807 large trades; 555 had a clear direction, worth $1.01B. Bullish share was 55%, above the typical 50% (the median of the last 20 sessions on file).
Among single stocks, technology led with $188.6M of directional money, net bearish.
What stood out
The largest single trade was in NDX: sold 669 $28,000 puts expiring Jan. 15, a bullish print worth $44.6M, 8% of all bullish money. Without it the day was 52% bullish.
By sector
Net directional premium by sector (bullish minus bearish); bar length is the size of the net.
“Bought” means a trade printed at the ask and “sold” at the bid. We cannot see who is on the other side or why a trade was placed, so read these as activity, not as a call on direction.
04The Big Bet
The largest new options position of the session
$660 call sold · expires Nov. 20, 2026
Drawn to scale. Shading marks the side of the breakeven where the position pays at expiry; green pays, red does not.
At 10:44 a.m., a trader sold 5,329 Nov. 20 $660 calls at the bid, collecting $11.0M ($2,062 a contract). The seller starts losing above $680.62, 7.9% above the close. It looks like a new position rather than the closing of an old one.
META closed at $630.56, having lost 1.88% on the day. The seller keeps the full $11.0M if it finishes below $660 at expiry and starts losing above $680.62, 7.9% above the close, with 4 weeks left.
05Money moves
The movers, and the biggest trade in each
EWZ dropped 19.8% to $34.15, with $11.8M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 10:13 a.m., a trader bought 10,005 Jan. 15 $35 calls at the ask, paying $1.0M ($104 a contract). It pays at expiry above $36.04, 5.5% above the close.
NU dropped 17.1% to $12.59, with $1.2M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 2:13 p.m., a trader sold 1,468 June 17, 2027 $13 calls at the bid, collecting $254K ($173 a contract). The seller starts losing above $14.73, 17.0% above the close.
FICO dropped 13.1% to $708.07, with $2.7M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 10:04 a.m., a trader bought 37 March 19 $760 calls at the ask, paying $422K ($11,400 a contract). It pays at expiry above $874.00, 23.4% above the close.
The three largest moves among names with at least $1.0M of visible options flow on the day. A trade next to a move is not a reason for it.
06Calendar
The next session
- Durable Goods, 8:30 a.m. ET
- Conference Bd - Consumer Confidence, 10:00 a.m. ET
- New Home Sales, 10:00 a.m. ET
- Earnings before the open: KO (about 2.8%), NVS, BA (about 4.7%), SPGI (about 3.8%), GLW (about 7.1%), HCA
- Earnings after the close: V (about 2.8%), STX (about 8.0%)
Percentages are the move the options market is pricing for the report, as a share of the stock price. Only events and numbers we have on file are listed.
07One thing to learn
A short lesson
Levels are reference points, not forecasts
A Floor, a Ceiling or a Titan marks where something happened on the map, not where price is going. Price sometimes reacts there and sometimes goes straight through. Use levels to frame a trade, with a plan for both outcomes.
08Follow-up
The Big Bet ledger
Every Big Bet stays here until it expires, win or lose. Status compares the latest close with the breakeven.
| Bet | Breakeven | Latest close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| METAOct 26 · $660 call sold | 680.62 | 630.56 | Working |
| NVDAOct 23 · $220 call sold | 227.03 | 216.00 | Working |
| SOXLOct 22 · $55 put bought | 28.80 | 90.50 | Under water |
| SKHYOct 21 · $130 call bought | 153.00 | 142.62 | Under water |
| METAOct 20 · $660 put bought | 628.60 | 630.56 | Under water |
| KOOct 19 · $90 call sold | 94.74 | 92.70 | Working |
| UCTTOct 16 · $55 call bought | 59.70 | 46.71 | Under water |
| SPYOct 14 · $733 put sold | 728.48 | 765.37 | Working |
| WULFOct 13 · $13 call bought | 15.19 | 11.98 | Under water |
| GOOGOct 12 · $340 put sold | 326.94 | 314.19 | Under water |
| QQQOct 9 · $745 put sold | 724.37 | 712.20 | Under water |
| QQQOct 7 · $840 call sold | 868.92 | 712.20 | Working |
Positions, not advice.
Want to see these maps live as the session unfolds? Open Æther.