Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Evening brief
Big Bet: a trader paid $18.5M for QQQ $715 calls
SPY +0.34%, QQQ +0.61%, IWM +0.42%. Flow was 26% bullish against a typical 51%.
01The 60-second version
- SPY +0.34% and QQQ +0.61%, leaving SPY 1.2% under its 52-week high. Technology led the sectors; Utilities fell the most.
- AXGN jumped 31.5% to $49.25. Its biggest options trade: a trader sold $50 calls, collecting $260K.
- 824 large trades; 26% of directional money was bullish, against a typical 51%.
- The Big Bet: a trader paid $18.5M for QQQ $715 calls; breakeven $737.98, 1.7% above the close.
- Thursday: PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% at 8:30 a.m. ET; AMZN and INTC report after the close.
02The close
How the market closed
SPY gained 0.34% to $772.31; QQQ gained 0.61% to $725.61; IWM gained 0.42% to $281.29. SPY is up 1.63% on the week. It closed 1.2% under its 52-week high.
6 of 11 sectors rose. Technology led (+0.80%) and Utilities was weakest (−0.84%).
| Index | Close | Day | Week | Floor | Titan | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYS&P 500 ETF | 772.31 | +0.34% | +1.63% | — | — | — |
| QQQNasdaq-100 ETF | 725.61 | +0.61% | +3.02% | — | — | — |
| IWMRussell 2000 ETF | 281.29 | +0.42% | +2.02% | — | — | — |
| SPXS&P 500 index | 7,743.98 | +0.28% | +1.58% | — | — | — |
| Sector and volatility | Close | Day | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLKTop sector · Technology | 191.00 | +0.80% | +4.24% |
| XLUBottom sector · Utilities | 42.49 | −0.84% | −0.21% |
| VIXVolatility index | 16.91 | −3.43% | −13.06% |
Floor and Ceiling are the nearest calm levels below and above the close that are big enough to matter; a dash means none qualified. The Titan is the biggest level on the map and is tagged when it is jumpy. Jumpy levels tend to let price run through them. Week is the change since the last close of the prior week. Reference points, not forecasts.
03Options flow
Where the money went
The Flow page showed 824 large trades; 560 had a clear direction, worth $1.99B. Bullish share was 26%, below the typical 51% (the median of the last 20 sessions on file).
Among single stocks, technology led with $317.5M of directional money, net bullish.
What stood out
The largest single trade was in SPX: sold 5,000 $7,000 calls expiring Dec. 18, a bearish print worth $400.0M, 27% of all bearish money. Without it the day was 33% bullish. It looks like closing an older position.
By sector
Net directional premium by sector (bullish minus bearish); bar length is the size of the net.
“Bought” means a trade printed at the ask and “sold” at the bid. We cannot see who is on the other side or why a trade was placed, so read these as activity, not as a call on direction.
04The Big Bet
The largest new options position of the session
$715 call bought · expires Nov. 20, 2026
Drawn to scale. Shading marks the side of the breakeven where the position pays at expiry; green pays, red does not.
At 2:42 p.m., a trader bought 8,065 Nov. 20 $715 calls at the ask, paying $18.5M ($2,298 a contract). It pays at expiry above $737.98, 1.7% above the close. It looks like a new position rather than the closing of an old one.
QQQ closed at $725.61, having gained 0.61% on the day. To pay at expiry it needs to finish above $737.98, 1.7% higher, with 3 weeks left.
05Money moves
The movers, and the biggest trade in each
AXGN jumped 31.5% to $49.25, with $3.1M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 3:45 p.m., a trader sold 999 Nov. 20 $50 calls at the bid, collecting $260K ($260 a contract). The seller starts losing above $52.60, 6.8% above the close.
BEAM jumped 15.6% to $28.78, with $1.6M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 11:07 a.m., a trader sold 100 Jan. 21, 2028 $25 calls at the bid, collecting $100K ($1,000 a contract). The seller starts losing above $35.00, 21.6% above the close.
SKHY jumped 13.2% to $164.70, with $7.7M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 1:58 p.m., a trader sold 1,494 Nov. 20 $155 calls at the bid, collecting $2.3M ($1,558 a contract). The seller starts losing above $170.58, 3.6% above the close.
The three largest moves among names with at least $1.0M of visible options flow on the day. A trade next to a move is not a reason for it.
06Calendar
The next session
- PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y%, 8:30 a.m. ET
- PCE Core Price Idx, M/M%, 8:30 a.m. ET
- PCE Price Idx, Y/Y%, 8:30 a.m. ET
- PCE Price Idx, M/M%, 8:30 a.m. ET
- Jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. ET
- Earnings before the open: LLY (about 5.3%), MA (about 3.0%), MRK (about 4.0%), CAT (about 5.9%), SHEL (about 2.8%), LIN
- Earnings after the close: AMZN (about 6.4%), INTC (about 8.2%)
Percentages are the move the options market is pricing for the report, as a share of the stock price. Only events and numbers we have on file are listed.
07One thing to learn
A short lesson
Debit and credit spreads
A debit spread costs money up front and pays if the stock moves your way past the breakeven. A credit spread collects money up front and keeps it if the stock stays on the right side of the short strike. Both have a capped best case and a capped worst case, which is why traders use them to limit risk.
08Follow-up
The Big Bet ledger
Every Big Bet stays here until it expires, win or lose. Status compares the latest close with the breakeven.
| Bet | Breakeven | Latest close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQQOct 28 · $715 call bought | 737.98 | 725.61 | Under water |
| QQQOct 27 · $690 put sold | 682.23 | 725.61 | Working |
| METAOct 26 · $660 call sold | 680.62 | 612.49 | Working |
| NVDAOct 23 · $220 call sold | 227.03 | 215.38 | Working |
| SOXLOct 22 · $55 put bought | 28.80 | 107.35 | Under water |
| SKHYOct 21 · $130 call bought | 153.00 | 164.70 | Working |
| METAOct 20 · $660 put bought | 628.60 | 612.49 | Working |
| KOOct 19 · $90 call sold | 94.74 | 91.73 | Working |
| UCTTOct 16 · $55 call bought | 59.70 | 55.88 | Under water |
| SPYOct 14 · $733 put sold | 728.48 | 772.31 | Working |
| WULFOct 13 · $13 call bought | 15.19 | 13.42 | Under water |
| GOOGOct 12 · $340 put sold | 326.94 | 321.89 | Under water |
| QQQOct 9 · $745 put sold | 724.37 | 725.61 | Working |
| QQQOct 7 · $840 call sold | 868.92 | 725.61 | Working |
Positions, not advice.
Want to see these maps live as the session unfolds? Open Æther.