Thursday, October 29, 2026 · Evening brief
Big Bet: a trader collected $10.6M selling NVDA $210 calls
SPY −0.38%, QQQ −1.40%, IWM +0.96%. Flow was 53% bullish against a typical 50%.
01The 60-second version
- SPY −0.38% and QQQ −1.40%, leaving SPY 1.6% under its 52-week high. Health care led the sectors; Communication services fell the most.
- NOW dropped 26.8% to $109.67. Its biggest options trade: a trader sold $120 calls, collecting $1.1M.
- 1,168 large trades; 53% of directional money was bullish, against a typical 50%.
- The Big Bet: a trader collected $10.6M selling NVDA $210 calls; the seller starts losing at $231.25, 8.2% above the close.
- Friday: chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET; XOM, ABBV and CVX report before the open.
02The close
How the market closed
SPY lost 0.38% to $769.36; QQQ lost 1.40% to $715.34; IWM gained 0.96% to $284.01. SPY is up 1.25% on the week. It closed 1.6% under its 52-week high.
9 of 11 sectors rose. Health care led (+2.40%) and Communication services was weakest (−1.87%).
| Index | Close | Day | Week | Floor | Titan | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYS&P 500 ETF | 769.36 | −0.38% | +1.25% | — | — | — |
| QQQNasdaq-100 ETF | 715.34 | −1.40% | +1.56% | — | — | — |
| IWMRussell 2000 ETF | 284.01 | +0.96% | +3.01% | — | — | — |
| SPXS&P 500 index | 7,720.39 | −0.30% | +1.27% | — | — | — |
| Sector and volatility | Close | Day | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLVTop sector · Health care | 184.04 | +2.40% | +2.65% |
| XLCBottom sector · Communication services | 101.21 | −1.87% | −4.08% |
| VIXVolatility index | 17.20 | +1.83% | −11.57% |
Floor and Ceiling are the nearest calm levels below and above the close that are big enough to matter; a dash means none qualified. The Titan is the biggest level on the map and is tagged when it is jumpy. Jumpy levels tend to let price run through them. Week is the change since the last close of the prior week. Reference points, not forecasts.
03Options flow
Where the money went
The Flow page showed 1,168 large trades; 680 had a clear direction, worth $1.55B. Bullish share was 53%, above the typical 50% (the median of the last 20 sessions on file).
Among single stocks, technology led with $279.3M of directional money, net bearish.
What stood out
The largest single trade was in SPX: bought 750 $6,000 calls expiring Jan. 15, a bullish print worth $133.4M, 16% of all bullish money. Without it the day was 49% bullish. It looks like closing an older position.
By sector
Net directional premium by sector (bullish minus bearish); bar length is the size of the net.
“Bought” means a trade printed at the ask and “sold” at the bid. We cannot see who is on the other side or why a trade was placed, so read these as activity, not as a call on direction.
04The Big Bet
The largest new options position of the session
$210 call sold · expires Feb. 19, 2027
Drawn to scale. Shading marks the side of the breakeven where the position pays at expiry; green pays, red does not.
At 10:41 a.m., a trader sold 5,000 Feb. 19 $210 calls at the bid, collecting $10.6M ($2,125 a contract). The seller starts losing above $231.25, 8.2% above the close. It looks like a new position rather than the closing of an old one.
NVDA closed at $213.66, having lost 0.81% on the day. The seller keeps the full $10.6M if it finishes below $210 at expiry and starts losing above $231.25, 8.2% above the close, with 16 weeks left.
05Money moves
The movers, and the biggest trade in each
NOW dropped 26.8% to $109.67, with $7.3M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 9:53 a.m., a trader sold 2,500 Nov. 20 $120 calls at the bid, collecting $1.1M ($445 a contract). The seller starts losing above $124.45, 13.5% above the close.
ALNY dropped 25.1% to $174.00, with $4.2M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 1:05 p.m., a trader sold 100 Jan. 15 $160 calls at the bid, collecting $280K ($2,800 a contract). The seller starts losing above $188.00, 8.0% above the close.
PURR jumped 23.3% to $12.29, with $3.6M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 12:05 p.m., a trader sold 7,534 Dec. 18 $13 puts at the bid, collecting $1.8M ($233 a contract). The seller starts losing below $10.67, 13.2% below the close.
The three largest moves among names with at least $1.0M of visible options flow on the day. A trade next to a move is not a reason for it.
06Calendar
The next session
- Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI, 9:45 a.m. ET
- Earnings before the open: XOM (about 2.9%), ABBV (about 4.0%), CVX (about 2.9%), AZN, BP (about 3.6%), SNY, GD (about 3.5%), REGN (about 4.4%)
Percentages are the move the options market is pricing for the report, as a share of the stock price. Only events and numbers we have on file are listed.
07One thing to learn
A short lesson
Why price clings between levels
When a stock sits between two big levels near expiry, it often drifts back and forth inside them. The nearer expiry gets, the more the pull can matter. A close just under a level is a prompt to ask what happens on the first push through it.
08Follow-up
The Big Bet ledger
Every Big Bet stays here until it expires, win or lose. Status compares the latest close with the breakeven.
| Bet | Breakeven | Latest close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDAOct 29 · $210 call sold | 231.25 | 213.66 | Working |
| QQQOct 28 · $715 call bought | 737.98 | 715.34 | Under water |
| QQQOct 27 · $690 put sold | 682.23 | 715.34 | Working |
| METAOct 26 · $660 call sold | 680.62 | 624.52 | Working |
| NVDAOct 23 · $220 call sold | 227.03 | 213.66 | Working |
| SOXLOct 22 · $55 put bought | 28.80 | 102.39 | Under water |
| SKHYOct 21 · $130 call bought | 153.00 | 162.09 | Working |
| METAOct 20 · $660 put bought | 628.60 | 624.52 | Working |
| KOOct 19 · $90 call sold | 94.74 | 92.82 | Working |
| UCTTOct 16 · $55 call bought | 59.70 | 54.70 | Under water |
| SPYOct 14 · $733 put sold | 728.48 | 769.36 | Working |
| WULFOct 13 · $13 call bought | 15.19 | 12.75 | Under water |
| GOOGOct 12 · $340 put sold | 326.94 | 282.32 | Under water |
| QQQOct 9 · $745 put sold | 724.37 | 715.34 | Under water |
| QQQOct 7 · $840 call sold | 868.92 | 715.34 | Working |
Positions, not advice.
Want to see these maps live as the session unfolds? Open Æther.