Friday, October 30, 2026 · Evening brief
RDDT dropped 29.8%, and a $691K bearish trade was the biggest in it
SPY −1.79%, QQQ −3.47%, IWM −1.64%. Flow was 48% bullish against a typical 50%.
01The 60-second version
- SPY −1.79% and QQQ −3.47%, leaving SPY 3.4% under its 52-week high. Energy led the sectors; Technology fell the most.
- RDDT dropped 29.8% to $91.73. Its biggest options trade: a trader bought $80 puts for $691K.
- 1,390 large trades; 48% of directional money was bullish, against a typical 50%.
- The Big Bet: a trader collected $10.5M selling SNDK $1,270 calls; the seller starts losing at $1,330.00, 15.6% above the close.
- Next week: ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI on Monday at 10:00 a.m. ET; AAPL, PLTR and VRTX report after the close on Monday.
02The close
How the market closed
SPY lost 1.79% to $755.72; QQQ lost 3.47% to $690.49; IWM lost 1.64% to $279.33. SPY is down 0.55% on the week. It closed 3.4% under its 52-week high.
6 of 11 sectors rose. Energy led (+1.91%) and Technology was weakest (−4.89%).
| Index | Close | Day | Week | Floor | Titan | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYS&P 500 ETF | 755.72 | −1.79% | −0.55% | — | — | — |
| QQQNasdaq-100 ETF | 690.49 | −3.47% | −1.97% | — | — | — |
| IWMRussell 2000 ETF | 279.33 | −1.64% | +1.31% | — | — | — |
| SPXS&P 500 index | 7,580.07 | −1.82% | −0.57% | — | — | — |
| Sector and volatility | Close | Day | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLETop sector · Energy | 70.02 | +1.91% | +0.99% |
| XLKBottom sector · Technology | 179.51 | −4.89% | −2.03% |
| VIXVolatility index | 19.42 | +12.84% | −0.15% |
Floor and Ceiling are the nearest calm levels below and above the close that are big enough to matter; a dash means none qualified. The Titan is the biggest level on the map and is tagged when it is jumpy. Jumpy levels tend to let price run through them. Week is the change since the last close of the prior week. Reference points, not forecasts.
03Options flow
Where the money went
The Flow page showed 1,390 large trades; 975 had a clear direction, worth $1.87B. Bullish share was 48%, close to the typical 50% (the median of the last 20 sessions on file).
Among single stocks, technology led with $580.6M of directional money, net bearish.
What stood out
The largest single trade was in SPCX: bought 2,215 $350 puts expiring Dec. 15, 2028, a bearish print worth $47.3M, 5% of all bearish money. Without it the day was 49% bullish.
By sector
Net directional premium by sector (bullish minus bearish); bar length is the size of the net.
“Bought” means a trade printed at the ask and “sold” at the bid. We cannot see who is on the other side or why a trade was placed, so read these as activity, not as a call on direction.
04The Big Bet
The largest new options position of the session
$1,270 call sold · expires Nov. 27, 2026
Drawn to scale. Shading marks the side of the breakeven where the position pays at expiry; green pays, red does not.
At 12:03 p.m., a trader sold 1,758 Nov. 27 $1,270 calls at the bid, collecting $10.5M ($6,000 a contract). The seller starts losing above $1,330.00, 15.6% above the close. It looks like a new position rather than the closing of an old one.
SNDK closed at $1,150.89, having lost 13.47% on the day. The seller keeps the full $10.5M if it finishes below $1,270 at expiry and starts losing above $1,330.00, 15.6% above the close, with 4 weeks left.
05Money moves
The movers, and the biggest trade in each
RDDT dropped 29.8% to $91.73, with $10.5M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 9:38 a.m., a trader bought 416 Jan. 21, 2028 $80 puts at the ask, paying $691K ($1,660 a contract). It pays at expiry below $63.40, 30.9% below the close.
INTC dropped 28.8% to $65.76, with $61.2M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 11:39 a.m., a trader bought 8,824 June 17, 2027 $100 calls at the ask, paying $3.6M ($404 a contract). It pays at expiry above $104.04, 58.2% above the close.
SOXS jumped 24.9% to $52.08, with $5.4M of visible options flow on the day.
The flow At 11:59 a.m., a trader sold 909 Nov. 6 $52 calls at the bid, collecting $382K ($420 a contract). The seller starts losing above $56.20, 7.9% above the close.
The three largest moves among names with at least $1.0M of visible options flow on the day. A trade next to a move is not a reason for it.
06Calendar
The week ahead
- ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 a.m. ET
- Earnings before the open: MAR (about 3.9%)
- Earnings after the close: AAPL (about 3.7%), PLTR (about 11.3%), VRTX (about 4.8%), WMB (about 4.7%), FANG
- Earnings before the open: SHOP (about 11.8%), PFE (about 3.9%), ETN (about 6.3%)
- Earnings after the close: AMD (about 7.6%), AMGN (about 4.0%), ANET (about 8.9%)
- ISM Report On Business Services PMI, 10:00 a.m. ET
- Earnings before the open: MCD, NVO, UBER, CVS
- Earnings after the close: ARM, QCOM
- Jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. ET
- Earnings before the open: COP, SONY, PH, CNQ
- Earnings after the close: MNST, NET
- Unemployment Rate, 8:30 a.m. ET
- Earnings before the open: ENB, MRNA, BAM, HUM, VST, PPL
Percentages are the move the options market is pricing for the report, as a share of the stock price. Only events and numbers we have on file are listed.
07One thing to learn
A short lesson
Why we compare with a typical day
A bullish share on its own means little, because flow has a usual lean. We compare each day with the middle of recent sessions so a quiet lean and an unusual one look different. A day far from typical is worth a second look, and one close to typical usually is not.
08Follow-up
The Big Bet ledger
Every Big Bet stays here until it expires, win or lose. Status compares the latest close with the breakeven.
| Bet | Breakeven | Latest close | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNDKOct 30 · $1,270 call sold | 1,330.00 | 1,150.89 | Working |
| NVDAOct 29 · $210 call sold | 231.25 | 204.64 | Working |
| QQQOct 28 · $715 call bought | 737.98 | 690.49 | Under water |
| QQQOct 27 · $690 put sold | 682.23 | 690.49 | Working |
| METAOct 26 · $660 call sold | 680.62 | 614.99 | Working |
| NVDAOct 23 · $220 call sold | 227.03 | 204.64 | Working |
| SOXLOct 22 · $55 put bought | 28.80 | 77.05 | Under water |
| SKHYOct 21 · $130 call bought | 153.00 | 149.21 | Under water |
| METAOct 20 · $660 put bought | 628.60 | 614.99 | Working |
| KOOct 19 · $90 call sold | 94.74 | 94.08 | Working |
| UCTTOct 16 · $55 call bought | 59.70 | 49.71 | Under water |
| SPYOct 14 · $733 put sold | 728.48 | 755.72 | Working |
| WULFOct 13 · $13 call bought | 15.19 | 11.73 | Under water |
| GOOGOct 12 · $340 put sold | 326.94 | 278.22 | Under water |
| QQQOct 9 · $745 put sold | 724.37 | 690.49 | Under water |
| QQQOct 7 · $840 call sold | 868.92 | 690.49 | Working |
Positions, not advice.
Want to see these maps live as the session unfolds? Open Æther.